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An optimist’s guide to the 2014-15 Denver Nuggets

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Over the years I’ve gathered this sneaking suspicion that I — and to some extend Roundball Mining Company — have developed a reputations as a cynic. I’ve never really debunked this sentiment, as there are a lot worse things in this world to be called than cynical (many of which I’ve also been called), however I must confess that the reasoning behind this label has always sort of bugged me. I’ve been pegged a George Karl “hater,” a detractor, but more than anything, a pessimist.

I’ve always found this paradoxical. In my personal life I’m just about as optimistic as it gets. Optimism is my mantra. I even consider myself a student of optimism. I firmly believe its practice engenders true happiness and am an ardent consumer of the studies to prove it. For me, identifying a discouraging pattern and expressing disapproval and frustration with its perpetuity, wanting to explore a different path after coming to terms with these realizations, should never be labeled “pessimistic.” I see that, rather, as optimism enacted. Wanting to take the steps necessary to improve upon something should never be looked at as pessimistic.

So what am I getting at here? What’s the point?

Aside from blowing smoke up my own ass, the point is (if you haven’t already guessed): I’m optimistic — not only about life, but about the 2014-15 Denver Nuggets. And I believe you should be as well. Here are seven reasons why…

7. The Northwest Division isn’t all it’s cracked up to be

For a while there it was looking like the Northwest Division was gonna be one of the tougher divisions in basketball — and to some extent, considering the star players and home court advantages, it still is. But I assure you, it’s not nearly as intimidating as it appeared last year.

For starters, Kevin Love is no longer in Minnesota.

Count that as a win.

The former MVP of the NBA, Kevin Durant, is also going to be sidelined for the first month of the season, during which time the Nuggets face the Thunder twice.

Count that as a win.

Then you have the Utah Jazz who are basically still in the midst of the most half-assed rebuild I’ve ever seen, teeming with low-level starters, youthful role players who’ve yet to blossom into consistent, nightly contributors and a head coach straight out of an L.L. Bean catalog.

Count that as a win.

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And while the Portland Trailblazers are gonna be tough all year long — actually, scratch that. They’re just gonna be a pain from start to finish, no gettin’ around it.

The point is, the Nuggets should dispose of the Wolves and Jazz fairly easily throughout the year, winning at least five of the eight games between the two. They should also stand a solid chance of winning two games against the Thunder and at least one against the Blazers. That’s eight of 12 in a division with a championship caliber team, an MVP, a former Rookie of the Year and perhaps the best power forward in the game.

I’ll count that as a win.

6. Jusuf Nurkic — MY MAN! — is a beast of beastly proportions about to enter full-on unfettered Beast Mode

What need be said bout Nurkic that hath not been said already? Nothing! He is a beast and all other beasts pale in comparison! (Perhaps a future tombstone epitaph?)

Nurkic will continue to develop throughout the year, but my favorite predraft prospect is already winning over the hearts of fans across Nuggets Nation, including head coach Brian Shaw, who in recent interviews has hinted at Nurkic playing a significant role for the Nuggets this season. This, of course, is a good thing for precisely two reasons…

One: Nurkic is just flat-out better than a lot of players on the Nuggets roster. Yes, he fouls at an abnormally high rate which is something Shaw certainly needs to monitor, but outside of that impediment Nurkic is proficient in nearly ever category. He’s a major threat in the low post (having already dismantled Taj Gibson in the preseason), has incredible vision and distribution skills for a man (or beast, rather) his size and gives the Nuggets one of the most valuable assets in the NBA, being…

Two: Low-post defense. I cannot stress enough just how important it is to possess mobile bigs who can shuffle their feet and defend one on one at a high level in the NBA. Nurkic does just that. Pairing him and Timofey Mozgov (another solid low-post defender) in the paint will almost entirely negate their opponents’ effectiveness in getting to the hole at times, thus rendering their counterparts jump shooters and therefore one dimensional.

Nurkic is still very young and should run into his fair share of obstacles throughout the year. He’ll also likely see a fluctuation in minutes as he, JaVale McGee and Timofey Mozgov battle for playing time at center. But if he can bring solid low-post defense for 15-20 minutes a night, that will go a long way in solidifying his role on the team as well as improving the Nuggets’ overall win total from a year ago.

5. Arron Afflalo is back…

While I love Jusuf Nurkic I might love Arron Afflalo equally, if not more. The guy is the definition of consummate professional. He does all the right things, says all the right words, never complains, never blames stuff on his teammates and on down the line. He’s a blue-collar, hard-working, regular guy who just so happens to be a really good basketball player as well. And I, for one, could not be happier to have him back with the Nuggets.

Aside from the fact Afflalo is a major upgrade over Randy Foye at the starting shooting guard position and the fact he’s improved his points-per-game and assists-per-game outputs every year since his induction into the NBA eight seasons ago (seriously, how many guys can claim that?), the biggest attribute Afflalo brings to the table, the one thing this team has missed most since his departure in 2012, is leadership. Arron Afflalo is a grown ass man who takes responsibility for his actions and atones for those made by his teammates without even the slightest hint of puerility. He’s a captain amongst deckhands, a player-coach amongst mere players and an (insert something great here) amongst (now insert something not as great here).

In a sense, Afflalo is sort of that missing piece that championship-caliber teams often acquire in the offseason in the hopes of securing a title. And though the Nuggets aren’t quite ready to defeat the San Antonio Spurs in a seven-game series just yet, the principle remains the same.

This is one piece to the puzzle that’s been missing for far too long.

Welcome back Triple A.

4. And so is Danilo Gallinari… AND A LOT OF OTHER PEOPLE!

Let’s recap something here, because I think some fans and some glorified fans who like to hear themselves talk a lot more than regular fans (aka, members of the media) are being flat-out delusional about this.

Danilo Gallinari is without question one of the very best players on this roster. By season’s end he may very well be the best. When he went down with injury over a year and a half ago he was hands down one of the top three players on the Nuggets roster. So why is it exactly that the media and far too many Nuggets fans are predicting this team to win somewhere in the neighborhood of 41 games or less? I don’t know how to say this without my pinky finger just so happening to touch the “Caps Lock” key, but… DANILO “THE ITALIAN STALLION” GALLINARI IS WORTH FIVE FREAKING GAMES ALONE — AT THE VERY FREAKING MINIMUM! AND THIS ISN’T EVEN TO MENTION ARRON “O CAPTAIN! MY CAPTAIN!” AFFLALO, JAVALE “SHAQTIN’ THIS CASH” MCGEE, NATE “THE GREAT(?)” ROBINSON, JUSUF “DRAX” NURKIC OR GARY “HARRY CARAY(???)” HARRIS!!! Why, therefore, would people assume this team is going to win a measly FOUR MORE GAMES than it did last season?!? It just doesn’t make sense. Not even in the slightest sense. Not at all.

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Look, it’s ridiculously silly for us to engage in back-and-fourth banter about precisely how many games the Nuggets are going to win this year because none of us are clairvoyants and none of us know what’s going to happen with trades or injuries. But I’m going to venture out on a limb and say this team, if healthy, is fully capable of winning upwards of four to five more games than it did last year after being completely and utterly decimated by injuries for 82 games. And if they don’t, then I guess it’s time we put Brian Shaw under the microscope. But before we get to that theoretically (currently) non-existent plot point in our narrative, let’s keep one thing in mind…

3. Brian Shaw is no longer a rookie

One of the more erroneous and puzzling notions about professional sports coaches — and coaches in general for that matter — is that they are immutable. In the eyes of fans a coach is as good the day they retire as the day they were hired for their first professional gig. In reality we know this not to be true. Look, for example, at the records of first-time head coaches in the NBA. There’s a clear-cut pattern and it’s not exactly one deserving of accolades.

In his first season with the Spurs current reigning NBA Coach of the Year, Gregg Popovich, suffered a similar situation as Brian Shaw, losing most of his roster to injuries and finishing with a paltry 20-62 record. Red Auerbach resigned twice in his first five seasons as head coach before joining the Boston Celtics. Chuck Daly was fired after his first year as head coach. And of course George Karl was fired twice in his first two seasons with the Cavs and Warriors.

What do all these coaches have in common? Aside from designated spots in the Hall of Fame, it’s rings (Karl not included) — 16 combined, to be exact.

Judging Shaw based on one year, his first year as head coach with an injury-depleted roster nonetheless, is the very antithesis of scientific analysis. Sure he made some questionable decisions in his first spell as head coach. Who hasn’t? Who hasn’t experimented with lineups and play calling during the doldrums of a lost season? Hell, even some of the most eminent NBA championship coaches are still making highly questionable decisions in the playoffs and NBA Finals.

Everyone in the world makes mistakes. It’s part of life. What separates the best coaches, the most successful people, the most highly regarded figures of our society is not that they grow incapable of committing mistakes, but that they always learn from them.

At the very least, Shaw deserves a chance to learn from his.

2. The Nuggets are deeper than they’ve been in the last decade

For how many years have we driveled over the Nuggets’ depth? It seems like forever. Every October we list the Nuggets bench as the most threatening asset. And while it’s true that for at least the last five years this team has had one of the better benches in the NBA, I don’t think it’s ever been as good as it is this year.

Assuming the Nuggets start a very respectable lineup of Lawson, Afflalo, Gallinari, Faried and Mozgov, look then at the likely second unit of Robinson (one of the best energy guys in the league), Foye (one of the best 3-point shooters in the league), Chandler (one of the best backup small forwards in the league — perhaps the best), Hickson (…) and Nurkic (looking like one of the best pure centers in the league). While they’re no 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, that’s still one hell of a second unit, one that I’d bet could hang with about five or six starting units in the NBA. And that’s not even including JaVale McGee (one of the best shot blockers in the league), Darrell Arthur (a solid defender and stretch forward), Alonzo Gee (another tenacious wing defender), Gary Harris (who knows where he’ll be by the end of the year) and Erick Green, all of who comprise an additional five-man unit that could just as easily pass as a better bench than those owned by the cellar-dwelling teams in the NBA.

On any given night the Nuggets could utilize a combination of 10-13 legitimate NBA starters and role players to stifle their opponent. And when injuries strike this team should be as prepared as ever to weather the storm — assuming none of those injuries are season ending and obtained by starters, which is a bit of a different story as we well know.

People have compared this year’s Nuggets team favorably to the 2012-13 Nuggets squad that won 57 games. They say it’s deep and that Afflalo is a near equivalent substitute for Andre Iguodala. But I have to strongly disagree. Firstly, that team also had George Karl who knew how to win regular season games like nobody’s business. And as much as I love Afflalo, his defense is nowhere near the level of Iguodala’s, who is perhaps the best wing defender in the NBA. Furthermore, that team was healthy most of the year and had a bench unit that featured Corey Brewer (still one of the best role players in the entire league, evident from his 50-point game last season), Andre Miller (who was without question the best backup point guard in the league at the time), Kosta Koufos (who nobody can deny had an excellent year) and Wilson Chandler (in his best season as a Nugget). That team was simply more talented, more experienced and more poised to win on a nightly basis than the 2014-15 Denver Nuggets.

Rather than drawing parallels with the record-setting 57-win squad, I see this team more as a reincarnation of the 2010-11 post-Carmelo Anthony Nuggets combined with the 2011-12 lockout-shortened 38-win Nuggets. Those were teams that had no standout stars but won many games through the second unit by submitting waves of players with starter-level talent. Guys like Al Harrington, Chris Anderson, J.R. Smith, Raymond Felton, Rudy Fernandez, Corey Brewer, Kosta Koufos and Anthony Carter all contributed to one of the more lethal benches in the league and draw many similarities to the one currently occupied by the 2014-15 Denver Nuggets.

But if you’re still not convinced role players can win you a robust amount of games over the course of an NBA sesaon, consider my last point…

1. Everyone is better

Everyone is better. Everybody on the Nuggets roster — the mainstays, the building blocks, the pillars, the sidekicks, even the coaches — they’re all improved. But mostly, the starters.

Look at the leaps and bounds made by Ty Lawson in his game over the last several years. He’s gone from fringe starter to fringe All-Star. Kenneth Faried is another who’s already far surpassed my expectations when the Nuggets drafted him in 2011. The growth he had in the latter half of last year alone was more than I ever thought possible. And then there’s Mozgov. What can you even say about him other than the fact Tim Connelly doesn’t get near the credit he deserves for re-signing the 7-foot milky White Russian. He’s gone from third-string punching bag to the most beloved big man on a team with JaVale McGee and Jusuf Nurkic, two of the more endearing personalities in the NBA.

Then there are the more nuanced improvements. Yes, Gallinari is coming off a major injury, but he’s looked great in the preseason and any Gallinari is better than no Gallinari.

Improvement.

Afflalo, as mentioned above, has increased his scoring and assists outputs every year in the league.

Improvement.

JaVale McGee is healthy again, and like Gallinari, a healthy JaVale McGee is better than no JaVale McGee.

Improvement.

Same story for Nate Robinson.

Improvement.

And here’s where it gets even more nuanced. Because the Nuggets had so many injuries last year and because those players are now back, this allows those who filled in for them to move back to their natural positions and contributing roles. In this sense, upgrading the shooting guard position (an improvement in itself) now enables Randy Foye to slide into his natural position as backup shooting guard rather than starter.

Improvement.

Gallinari pushes Wilson Chandler again into his seemingly destined role of shadowing the Italian small forward off the bench.

Improvement.

A healthy combination of Ty Lawson and Nate Robinson allows for a solid one-two punch at the point-guard position and prevents Foye from playing combo guard for weeks on end.

Improvement.

J.J. Hickson seeing the least amount of time at center and starting power forward is always a plus.

Improvement. Improvement. Improvement.

The emergence of Timofey Mozgov is an upgrade in itself and allows the best trio of centers in the entire NBA to challenge each other for minutes.

Improvement.

Say what you will of Alonzo Gee, but he’s now an established NBA vet with more than five years of experience in the league including a starting stint in Cleveland and is a major upgrade over Quincy Miller, at least defensively speaking.

Improvement.

And lastly, there are even smaller improvements visible everywhere across the board, from adding a young and promising rookie like Gary Harris, to Darrell Arthur expanding his range, to Tim Connelly looking more and more like a trustworthy, savvy GM, to Brian Shaw emphasizing defense in press conferences, to…

Ah, screw it. Nuggets basketball is back. And if that’s not an improvement in your life, if that’s not something to get excited about, something to look forward to every day, then no amount of writing is ever gonna convince you otherwise.

Yours truly,

A 2014-15 Denver Nuggets optimist.


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